Sam Allberry's statistic on gender transition and suicide

(Steven White) #1

Does anyone know the source of his statistic that people who attempt a gender transition are fourteen times more likely to commit suicide than those who don’t?

(SeanO) #2

@Narphi I’m not sure of Sam Allberry’s source, but here is a link to a study from the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Female to male adolescents reported the highest rate of attempted suicide (50.8%), followed by adolescents who identified as not exclusively male or female (41.8%), male to female adolescents (29.9%), questioning adolescents (27.9%), female adolescents (17.6%), and male adolescents (9.8%).

(Linda Nikitin) #3

Sunday, February 24, 2019
Hullo Steven,
Thanks for sharing and asking your question.
I thought I heard Sam Allberry say 19% more likely to commit suicide. Just saying what I remember. Dr. Paul R. McHugh from John Hopkins University School of Medicine says that people are 20% more likely. Sam may have read Dr Mc Hugh’s medical writings on the subject. You can put Dr. Mc Hugh’s name in Google for more info. Dr. McHugh speaks with much experience from seeing transgender individuals at John Hopkins. He speaks as a doctor with compassion.


Livestream: How Can I Know My Gender? An Evening with Sam Allberry - Friday, February 15th
(SeanO) #4

@Linnie Interesting, found this article from Dr. McHugh from the Wall Street Journal. Appears to have statistics from a different study as well.

A 2011 study at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden produced the most illuminating results yet regarding the transgendered, evidence that should give advocates pause. The long-term study—up to 30 years—followed 324 people who had sex-reassignment surgery. The study revealed that beginning about 10 years after having the surgery, the transgendered began to experience increasing mental difficulties. Most shockingly, their suicide mortality rose almost 20-fold above the comparable nontransgender population.

When children who reported transgender feelings were tracked without medical or surgical treatment at both Vanderbilt University and London’s Portman Clinic, 70%-80% of them spontaneously lost those feelings. Some 25% did have persisting feelings; what differentiates those individuals remains to be discerned.

The transgendered suffer a disorder of “assumption” like those in other disorders familiar to psychiatrists. With the transgendered, the disordered assumption is that the individual differs from what seems given in nature—namely one’s maleness or femaleness. Other kinds of disordered assumptions are held by those who suffer from anorexia and bulimia nervosa, where the assumption that departs from physical reality is the belief by the dangerously thin that they are overweight.

(gerhard NvC) #5

If I remember right it was 19 fold not 20% from a Scandinavian study were the transgender acceptance is relatively high.

(Steven White) #6

Thanks everyone,

I found the relevant part in Sam’s video. He says (at about 1:20.30) “If you’ve gone through some kind of transition surgery you are about nineteen times more likely to commit suicide than the general population.”

I agree with his philosophy here, that it is a bad strategy to think if you are discontent with the body you have that changing your body will likely bring contentment. That fits with the Gospel, real satisfaction comes from being reconciled to God.

But I’m not sure this statistic totally supports his argument. What would be more relevant than comparing individuals undergoing sex reassignment surgery with the general population for suicide rates; would be to compare suicide rates of individuals with gender dysphoria who undergo sex reassignment surgery with individuals with gender dysphoria who do not undergo sex reassignment surgery. It does seem like the Swedish study had the raw material to do this, but I don’t see a comparison between suicide of those who underwent surgery for gender dysphoria and those who were diagnosed and didn’t undergo surgery. I see in the paper that just over half of those diagnosed did not undergo surgery, but I don’t see where the suicide rates of this other group were analyzed.

(SeanO) #7

@Narphi I actually think what you might want to compare is 3 groups - a control group that did not undergo surgery, a group that did and a group that went through more traditional counseling. That would be a very helpful study in my opinion. Especially with a large enough sample population over the course of a decade or two.

Based on the results of the study @Gerhard_G cited , I still think Sam Allberry’s point is quite powerful. If the surgery had truly fixed the underlying issue, you would expect that the people who underwent it would resemble the general population. That would be an ideal outcome. So I think his point is valid because clearly the surgery did not result in those who underwent it resembling the general population regarding suicide rate. In fact, the surgery appears to have caused the suicide rate to increase based on the study I cited earlier. While there could be confounding factors - like the patient having a plurality of issues - it is clear that the reassignment surgery is not achieving the desired end.

The overall mortality for sex-reassigned persons was higher during follow-up (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8–4.3) than for controls of the same birth sex, particularly death from suicide (aHR 19.1; 95% CI 5.8–62.9). Sex-reassigned persons also had an increased risk for suicide attempts (aHR 4.9; 95% CI 2.9–8.5) and psychiatric inpatient care (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 2.0–3.9). Comparisons with controls matched on reassigned sex yielded similar results. Female-to-males, but not male-to-females, had a higher risk for criminal convictions than their respective birth sex controls.

It does look like they tried to take into account prior morbidity on the part of the patients in analyzing the data.

Transsexual individuals had been hospitalized for psychiatric morbidity other than gender identity disorder prior to sex reassignment about four times more often than controls. To adjust for these baseline discrepancies, hazard ratios adjusted for immigrant status and psychiatric morbidity prior to baseline are presented for all outcomes

(gerhard NvC) #8

In the huffingron post article “ Johns Hopkins Professor Endangers the Lives of Transgender Youth” thy claim that the high risk is a distortion of the data as it’s trend is declining and the authors of the study apart complained about the use of their data.
Newer studies put it all down to society and the harassment they experienced

Considering that transsexuals are 49 times more likely to have HIV according to AVERT, there might be other confounding issues and indeed the comparison with non-transitioned cohort would have been essential

(Kathleen) #9

Hello! I’m curious if you have a link to the source of this statistic? I did a keyword search of their website and found this article…

Is that the study you were referring to?

(gerhard NvC) #10

(Stephen Wuest) #11

The statistics are alarming. But I would be careful with statistics, and asserting causality. The modern scientific disciplines cannot agree on a common definition of “causality” (see The Oxford Handbook of Causation). Each scientific discipline seems to think that what it specifically studies, is what should be used in describing “causation.” (The current civil rights/social justice agenda wants to paint all perceived evil in the light of sex, or “race,” or “fundamentalist religion.”)

There are dozens of different ways to evaluate the same database, by picking different sets of variables to analyze. The news media like to pick sets of variables that lead to shocking or entertaining or popular statistics.

Different forms of “alarming” behaviors, change from generation to generation. The underlying causes of these destructive behaviors, from the biblical point of view, remain the same.

What is not alarming and is unchanging, is that those who reject God’s moral/ethical code, will end up with dysfunctional moral/ethical codes. Those who reject the identity that God has created for each of us, will end up with what secular culture likes to call “dysphoria.” And those who are not trying to live out the righteousness of God, will end up trying to live out all sorts of twisted and evil agendas (in the name of progress, and equality).

I don’t think that it’s very useful for Christians to focus on one sort of dysfunction. Our younger generations are filled with fearful, insecure people, who don’t know what their identity is. We are going to see this in all sorts of destructive statistics.

(SeanO) #12

@Stephen_Wuest While I agree conducting a meaningful statistical analysis is difficult, I still think it is a meaningful and worthwhile undertaking. It can help doctors as they treat individuals who are suffering. So while it may not get to the ultimate root of our dysfunction - our lack of alignment with God - it still does provide benefit and wisdom to those treating individuals. And I think that is very meaningful.