I think Lennox spoke most clearly to this here.
Lennox remarks that some plagues in the Bible are God’s judgment. So, if God tells us that a particular plague is his judgment, then we have his word for it. But we don’t have that clarity of revelation from him for COVID-19 or the Black Death.
Lennox goes on to say that we do, however, have Jesus’ comments in Luke 13.
"Or those eighteen on whom the tower in Siloam fell and killed them: do you think that they were worse offenders than all the others who lived in Jerusalem? No, I tell you; but unless you repent, you will all likewise perish.”
Lennox’s take-away is that ‘we must be very careful before we ascribe pandemics or anything else to the judgment of God.’
Further, from a skeptical perspective, Lennox explains that when we tell others this is God’s judgment, that comes across as a rather arrogant conclusion. Who do you think you are…? This approach doesn’t help the skeptic consider what God might be doing in this time.
What’s better is to ask, together, “What can we learn from this?”
I would just add one footnote to Lennox’s comments in light of your particular question. I think we need to be slowed down and even stopped by repeated reflection on Jesus’ teaching in Matthew 24:36:
But concerning that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father only.
If no one knows then it seems to me that any commentary on the matter can only be speculation. If someone argues, ‘yes, this is the start of the end times’ or that is countered with, ‘no, it isn’t,’ either way, Jesus has told us we don’t know the day or hour.
While we long to have certainty on God’s timing, he hasn’t seen fit to give that to us.
Rather, as Jesus goes on in Matthew 24:44,
Therefore you also must be ready, for the Son of Man is coming at an hour you do not expect.
Let’s press on to love God and love our neighbors in this time. When Jesus returns we’ll know soon enough.